LONDON / ConSynSer / – On Wednesday, October 21, oil prices experienced an increase, with Brent crude futures rising by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, as reported by Reuters. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude also gained over $1, climbing to $99 per barrel. This upward movement occurred amid a turbulent trading session influenced by recent assaults on shipping and energy facilities in the Middle East. Investors balanced these security concerns against indications that crude shipments from the Gulf are on the mend. Currently, Brent’s price is nearly 80% higher than it was a year ago.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that naval mines had halted three tankers on routes that Tehran considers unauthorized. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported an incident near Oman involving a vessel struck by attack. Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks targeting Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield. They also reported strikes on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These events reignited worries over supply channels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the trading day, prices experienced significant volatility. Brent’s gains diminished later in the session, dropping below $108 at one point. WTI briefly reached $100 before slipping below $98. Elevated freight rates in the Persian Gulf continued to underpin prices. Over the past month, Brent has increased approximately 8%, according to data from Trading Economics. Additionally, oil prices rebounded in late September following a four-session decline.
Gulf export flows counter supply concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are approaching prewar levels. Data from Kpler and Vortexa tracking tanker movements reveal that Middle East crude exports have increased since summer. Producers are boosting shuttle shipments through Hormuz and engaging in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports grew by 7.9% in August, reaching their highest point since March. These improving flow rates helped temper price gains during Wednesday’s trading session.
US inventory figures also played a role in market movements. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude stocks declined by just over 3 million barrels last week. The American Petroleum Institute had earlier reported a larger decrease of 4.9 million barrels. US weekly crude output was approximately 13.27 million barrels per day, down from 13.68 million the previous week. This decline in inventories suggests tightening supply in the world’s top oil-consuming nation.
Russian diesel shipments and Saudi attacks under scrutiny
Russia is preparing to deliver its first diesel shipment to the United States on Thursday, following an agreement between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Last week, Trump waived Russia sanctions under the Graham Act, facilitating this deal. Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched significant drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, signaling Kyiv’s efforts to prevent Moscow from expanding its diesel exports, according to Trading Economics.
On October 22, prices climbed again after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field resulted in two fatalities. Brent surpassed $111 per barrel, while WTI moved above $99. The United States also ordered some personnel and family members to leave its embassies in Saudi Arabia. Traders are closely watching Gulf shipping activity, Saudi production levels, and Russian fuel exports to determine the next direction for oil prices.