NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year Monday after four years of consecutive gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% since its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022. That session saw the index close at 3,577.03, its lowest since November 2020. By the close on Friday, the index reached 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% rise for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This ongoing cycle marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s within the historical record. It is also the seventh to have persisted for at least four years. Its 119% gain lags behind the average 184% increase observed across the studied bull markets. The 2009-to-2020 phase surged 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 period advanced by 582%. These earlier cycles remain among the most robust long-term market rallies in the comparison.
Historically, performance during the fifth year has mostly been positive, though results have varied between different cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Analyzing past data also reveals an average maximum decline of around 14% during fifth years. These figures reflect past market behavior and do not predict the current trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support Market Progress
Earnings reports continue to underpin the ongoing market advance. FactSet indicated that third-quarter S&P 500 profits on October 9 were 29.6% higher than the same period last year. This marks the third quarter in a row with earnings growth exceeding 25%. At the end of September, the growth estimate stood at 29.2%. Among 19 index companies that have reported, 84% surpassed analysts’ average earnings forecasts, with their combined earnings beating estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts project continued strong profit growth through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase by 27.6% year-over-year, while full-year earnings growth is estimated at 32.4%. Notably, semiconductor and hardware firms contribute roughly 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates. Furthermore, Barclays research found these companies are responsible for about 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, highlighting technology-related sectors as key drivers of earnings adjustments.
Interest Rates Rise Amid Market Milestone
The market’s upward momentum coincides with rising interest rates and high U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials noted that the economy was growing at a solid pace, even as inflation remained persistent. The September projections indicated a median 2026 economic growth rate of 2.3% and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s next scheduled policy meeting is set for October 27-28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields remain elevated as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield was at 5.60%. Despite these higher borrowing costs, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% that session, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite moved up by 0.6%. U.S. equities now enter the fifth year of growth close to record levels, supported by robust earnings and higher interest rates.